RUSSIA – UKRAINE CONFLICTS ANALYSIS AND RESOLUTION 2019

To:     The Right Honourable Russian President Hon. Vladimir Putin

From: Athinarayanan Sanjeevraja

Date: June 10, 2019

RE:     Russia – Ukraine Conflicts Analysis and Resolution 2019

Suggestion:

Hon. President, let me start by paying my respects to you and through you to. I wrote you in the month of February 2015 when you signed Minsk Accord. I had appreciated to German Chancellor Hon. Angela Merkel, French President Hon. François Hollande and you had guts to come together in an emergency meeting to mitigate the risks evolved in Ukraine. I deeply regret to inform you that it was not implemented by the insurgents. It will be hard to solve the problem or talk peace with a regime that respects no treaties or agreements. Russia promised to respect the borders of Ukraine in the Budapest Memorandum 1994. Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances in 1994 was an international agreement signed by the US, UK and Russia that guarantees the sovereignty and freedom of Ukraine after Ukraine voluntarily gave up their nukes. Russia has violated the agreements of which it is a signatory. In my perspective, if any agreement or any accord that broken, it is a dishonourable and untrustworthy government. However, I am writing to you again your good government to immediately release Ukrainian sailors. Your Naval Base Commander released the video. I watched the video couple of times so that I will be able to interpret the videos preciously. Please accept my apology if I wrongly interpreted as I am not an expertise.

Hon. President, the Ukrainian warship travel regularly from Odessa on the Black Sea to Mariupol within the Sea of Azov. Ukraine followed longtime practice when sending the ships to Azov Sea. The dispute over the Azov Sea and Kerch Strait has been heating up since May 16, 2018. The Kerch Strait that links Russia to Crimea is now militarised and fully under Moscow’s control. Azov Sea will be another venue of an armed conflict. Ukraine’s argued the Kerch Strait Bridge which was illegally constructed. The Kerch Strait and Sea of Azov as shared territorial waters according to the Charter of the UN. Let me discuss the issues seriously, the three Ukrainian vessels sailed extremely close to Sevastopol from Odessa before turning towards the Kerch Strait. Sevastopol is the major Russian naval base in the south and three Ukrainian vessels continued towards Kerch Strait. The Kerch Strait is one of the open international sailing routes. Any vessels that sail Kerch Strait should manoeuvre in a coordinated manner. Two Ukrainian vessels approached the Kerch Strait from inside the Azov Sea in a coordinated manoeuvre. But one Ukrainian vessel first cuts power in front of the Russian ship but not absolutely as I saw there was still small amount of churn but the reverse power to turn the bow of the vessel towards the Russian ship. Then, the Russian ship was attempted to steer to the Ukrainian vessel. Then the Ukrainian vessels apply power to advance towards the Russian ship. When I saw the video that collision was inevitable. Then, Russian ships turn left to meet the Ukrainian vessels forward. This would seem that Russian ship was attacked by the Ukrainian vessel. Because of that your Naval Base Commander released the video to the world. In my opinion, it was not the intention of Ukrainian vessels to attack the Russian ship. It happened accidently but not intentionally. One international media reported that Russia Coast Guard of the Border Service closing Kerch Strait between Azov Sea and Black Sea traffic in order to ensure safety. But Ukraine vessels do not threaten the Kerch Strait Bridge. They sailed underneath it in order to get where they are going. Sailing underneath does not constitute threatening it.  However, the Kerch Strait Bridge is one of the open international sailing routes. Ukraine has the right to access its part in Mariupol. Your good government is wrong in both in blocking off the waters into its illegally annexed territory and in attacking the Ukrainian flotilla, injuring Ukrainian sailors and capturing Ukrainian vessels. Russia once again did something provocative. When does the road of appeasement end? You only know the answer Hon. President. Your good government built bridge across the Kerch Strait. It does not give you the right to deny access. Moreover, it is very hard to say whether the Ukrainian vessels were trying to do anything besides transit to the Azov Sea. Your Naval Base Commander should have escorted Ukrainian sailors in a democratic and civilised way out of the waters and should not capture them after a shootout. IMHO, Ukrainian Navy Commander should radioed FSB Coast Guard to notified it our vessels en route to the Kerch Strait and Azov Sea. FSB Coast Guard should answer/response to Ukrainian Navy Commander. Ukrainian Navy Commander did a radio call or they maintained radio silence. I did couple of Google searches on FSB Coast Guard of Border Service but I could not able to find it. It was not yet clear. How can we know for sure whether the Ukrainian vessels announced their passage or not? If the FSB Coast Guard complied with protocol for instance avoiding navigation error, command errors and diplomatic errors nothing would have happened. This conflict induces instability in all of Europe and increases the probability of a major military conflict that draws in NATO. Any action to avoid this conflict shall be taken in accordance with the international treaties and shall if the circumstances of the case admit be positive, made an enough time and with due regard to the observarance of good government. Good government starts with acknowledging the realities.              

Hon. President, the Ukrainian vessels entered into shared territorial waters. That means that anything Russia does to the Ukrainian vessels in those waters is an act of aggression. The Azov Sea is international water and much of Ukraine borders the Sea of Azov. The Kerch Strait Bridge is the only way into the Azov Sea. Treaty between Russia and Ukraine in 2003 clearly states the Kerch Strait and Azov Sea as shared territorial waters but no dotted lines had been put on the chart to mark the claims. Russia does not have the sole rights but Russia is not keeping the treaty that allows the Ukraine access to the Sea of Azov. If any foreign vessels violate your territorial waters there is no need to attack them. The proper response is to stop the vessel and determine what they are doing in your territorial waters. If they do not stop the vessel you have the legal right to use as much force as necessary to stop the vessel. Russia should bound according to international treaties. If Russia failed to bound international treaties and blocks the passage of Ukrainian commercial and naval ships between the Black Sea and Azov Sea perhaps Bosphorus, Dardanelles and Baltic should be closed to the passage of Russian shipping. NATO could merely point out this. NATO would resolve this issue within 24 hours by asking Turkey who is a member of NATO to close the Bosphorus Strait to the Russian maritime traffic. You just imagine Hon. President no supply or reinforcement ships coming from Sevastopol to Latakia. There is a bilateral agreement regulating the ship traffic on the Azov Sea which both Russia and Ukraine have to adhere to. If one does not adhere to bilateral agreement regulating the ship traffic on the Azov Sea, there are consequences. International law and a specific treaty that guarantee both Russia and Ukraine access through the Kerch Strait. Russia should be implemented strictly that the peace conditions which were signed in Minsk.  

Hon. President, I have quite good idea what is going on in the EU neighbourhood as I am writing to the EU and its institutions since 2009. The reality is the Ukraine had over 20 years of time to build strong democracy and economy but they failed to do so. Now they pay the price. They lost Kim and eastern parts of the Ukraine. The hope of Ukrainian is to modernise their economy without triggering a Russian military response. But your good government economic blockade could cripple Ukraine economy. For instance, Cargo ships that wanted to reach its Azov Sea Port now found themselves subject to more inspections and lengthy delays that sometimes stretched to more than a week. Picking up steel or grain from Mariupol is now risky and more expensive which leads to decline of business there. I hope you better understand it. I acknowledge that lot of corruption in Ukraine and fraught path to reform. If they were successful it will give the EU more of a stake in Ukraine that may help not only stabilise the Ukraine but also the whole Europe.       

Hon. President, if you are generally interested in my opinion, I wish to see Russia as an ally of Europe. We’d be more prosperous and secure working together. In fact, this proposition as discussed a decade ago between the EU representatives and Russia. If I am not mistaken, since then, the US has worked to destabilise the EU and Russia so that the US would easily usurp economic and financial dominance in the long term. Russia is a country with an economy smaller than Germany, the UK, Italy, and France but showing off arms and bombs, invading and dividing countries and outsize military in proportion to its wealth instead of opening up to democracy, economic development, scientific education and liberty for Russians. Russia checks and balance are rapidly disappearing while instability and disruptions increase and your good government failed to prevent things from getting worse.  You need to understand that military and economic costs dramatically increased your political and military calculus. More weapons will not bring peace but rather will create a big mess. IMHO, you may have some strong military and weapons but you are still quite weak as a country and a society. Russia’s economy is suffering as plunging oil prices and sanction take their toll. There is no way that Russia meets any sort of rational cost-benefit analysis. Why Russia not attempts to maintain economic and political ties with the neighbouring countries? Why Russia is limited to playing a bigger economic and political role on its border in Europe and Asia? Why Russia is not well versed in international diplomacy? Russia must act decisively. John F Kennedy said that “There are risks and costs to a programme of action. But they are far less than the long range risks and costs of comfortable inaction.” If you stay isolated in global world, you will pay double price in the future. I most humbly pray you that you should not be involved in a civil war in a neighbouring state rather you maintain normal diplomatic and economic relations with Ukraine as well as the EU. For that you need to secure your domestic position through an aggressive foreign policy. I do expect honourable foreign policy from you. I would like to see you as a leader who leads with positive values and thought out policies in the future or all of Russia will eventually pay a very dear price in the future                           

Thank you very much for your attention Hon. President

Respectfully yours

Athinarayanan Sanjeevraja.

Tamil Nadu