CALL FOR AN AFGHAN PEACE ACCORD WITH THE TALIBAN 2019

To:     The Right Honourable Afghanistan President Hon. Ashraf Ghani 

From: Athinarayanan Sanjeevraja

Date: September 9, 2019

RE:     CALL FOR AN AFGHAN PEACE ACCORD WITH THE TALIBAN 2019

Suggestion: Hon. President, let me start my paying my respects to you and through you to. We are talking about ending the war in Afghanistan for so many years but the opening of talks between the Taliban and your government is the most difficult part of the peace process yet. Your government does not want to negotiate with terrorists. Yes, Taliban’s are murderous, misogynist, adherents to Sharia law in the extreme. If your government failed to talk with the Taliban or if the Taliban fulfill their vision for Afghanistan, millions of Afghans both men and women will suffer. It is very unlikely there will be a sustained peace in Afghanistan and there is zero-hope for rebuilding Afghanistan. I learned from BBC Video that Urban Afghans have great disdain for the rural Afghans. Why? I would like to see urban Afghans culturally partner with their rural Afghans in the future so that your government will regain power. If not, it will be great resource for Taliban. Taliban will win in the future because of the Taliban’s already mobilize a much larger population of the rural Afghans and  enjoy support across of Afghanistan territory. Once the Taliban retakes the major cities, there will be a bloodbath and women’s rights will cease to exist. As a result, Afghanistan is continued to see Taliban insurgent violence every day, Taliban continue to indiscriminately attack and terrorise the people of Afghanistan and will cause undue harm to the future. If it is continue, Afghanistan will return to the dark ages and peace will never comes to Afghanistan. If I am not mistaken, over 3000 civilians have died in Afghanistan in the first half of 2019. 

Hon. President, I have said so earlier, the Taliban wouldn’t exist without popular support amongst the rural Afghans. The main issue is that the rural Afghans hate the US and your government and love the Taliban. It is your government to win your own rural people over. The best path to durable peace is to include rural Afghans in the mainstream. I most humbly request your government to establish legitimacy and cause a loss of support for the Taliban is for your ability to govern more rural areas exceed that of the Taliban. For that your government politically, socially, culturally and ideologically the rural Afghans share the same ground and ensure that both rural Afghans and urban Afghans are indistinguishable. If I am not mistaken, your good government only has consistent governing abilities of Kabul and even then, your government can’t maintain the security. How Kabul regime can survive long term the Taliban insurgency without strong military on the ground? Your government and your rapidly diminishing army are no match for the Taliban. Your government should emphasise the importance of Afghans shouldering the cost of modernizing your security forces with the help of the US or other Western nations. I am not saying that military intervention is not appropriate but it is never the solution to a failed nation. There is no path to victory in being involved in civil and political conflicts because of that I humbly request your government to call for peace accord with Taliban. When you deal with the Taliban you must understand the difference between negotiating with a foreign nation and negotiating with a terrorist organization to end war. Negotiation with the Taliban requires Knowledge of Taliban wants and needs, your government need to understand how the Taliban think and operate, discipline to keep your government own objectives but vulnerabilities hidden, meticulous preparation on the underlying facts such as  human rights, agree to stop violence, comprehensive ceasefire, armistice, guarantee Afghanistan’s constitution, Afghanistan’s free election and stop supporting international terrorism and history of the Afghanistan’s problem to end war. Otherwise, we will doom to fail as long as we expect the Taliban to think with our values or attempt to impose our values on Taliban. 

Hon. President, at present, Afghanistan doesn’t have good infrastructure, less urbanised, less tax revenues and less international trade. I want your government achieve in above mentioned areas and building state, industry, agriculture and educational institutions so that Afghanistan has well urban enclave with modern systems, Afghanistan economy will be more than doubled in size, access to healthcare will improve, school and college enrollment will dramatically expanded particularly for girls. Taliban can’t do these. Taliban’s are more interested in thuggish behavior than trying to establish a peaceful situation. They are not interested in nation building but rather interested in dismantling all existing structures. They are already shown a willingness to allow jihadist camps to train terrorist without interference. Taliban can fund the war and recruit fighters. According to the UN, the vast majority of the civilian casualties have been caused by the Taliban insurgents. Taliban win simply by killing and subjugating the other side with a knife and gun. You win when your country is somewhat prosperous and most Afghans are happy enough to stay with you. When I saw the videos of Taliban, Afghanistan under the Taliban is probably even greater poverty.

Hon. President, politicians would best serve foreign policy. To be honest, Afghanistan foreign policy has been screwed up from its inception because its foreign policy has always been less about the people, no unified voice and no clear objective. I am sorry to say that there has never been a clear and complete strategy in Afghanistan. There are so many issues need to address your government. First, more than 95 percent of Afghans support for Sharia law. Unless we bring that proportion down, Afghan women will be always treated like scum. If Taliban imposed Sharia law, Afghan women and girls will suffer. Your government has to think what policy you follow to bring that proportion down? Second, your government has to address the long outstanding issue of resettlement of refugees’ in Afghanistan so that refugees settled in neighbouring countries and return back to their homeland without any fear and repercussions. Third, Afghan women have been unable to leave home under Taliban. They are trying to survive in the age of Taliban by trying to pass a young girl off as a boy so that she could earn money for her family or she could go to school or college. If your government want to address the above issues, your government has to call for Peace Accord with Taliban for that your government has to ignore the inevitable consequences of the past.

Hon. President, when your government gets to negotiate with Taliban from a position of strength and the deal should ensure several crucial things. Any deal with Taliban must absolutely insure guarantees of human rights such as military training for children, public beheadings, whippings in the street, treatment of women as a chattel, child mortality etc for the people of Afghanistan, agree to stop violence, comprehensive ceasefire, armistice, guarantee Afghanistan’s constitution, Afghanistan’s free election and stop supporting international terrorism. National security, human rights and regional stability are more important concerns for Afghanistan. I know that there are no easy answers for Afghanistan. If your government doesn’t want to call for a Peace Accord with Taliban, three possible solutions in my mind, one is divide the country into two such as North Afghanistan and South Afghanistan. Give South Afghanistan to Taliban and keep North Afghanistan for your government. Second is power sharing initiative between your government and the Taliban’s. Third is set up western alliances and rule of law institutions to keep peace in Afghanistan. For that you should have a structured government that sought to establish ties with other western nation. Western alliances should provide enough support in all areas and building state, industry, agriculture, educational institutions and financial assistance. I am sure that first and second solutions may be incompatible for you because you may not want to divide the country and the Taliban and your government is incompatible because Taliban culture makes your government pretty much impossible. If any attempt to form a coalition government is destined for failure. I fervently hope that you will choose third solution that will address all issues in Afghanistan. 

Hon. President, BBC reported that the US – Taliban deal would see 5400 troops withdraw. If the US withdrawn its troops which will most likely lead to a collapse of your good government as well as your nation. Afghanistan will be isolated from the rest of the world if the US withdrawn its troops. I have no confidence in the US – Taliban deal because your government was excluded from the talks which will have many negative consequences. The US is negotiating with the Taliban who holds no power. It was an obvious mistakes for Hon. Trump negotiating with the Taliban while pushing your good government out of the picture altogether. Indeed, no positive outcome and ‘art of the deal’ could be expected from this kind of negotiation. There is no doubt that the Taliban may manipulate the peace process to get the US out of Afghanistan, once the US leaves Afghanistan there has little military leverage on the ground and the Taliban will take advantage of this disruption to gain more control in Afghanistan. Once the US leaves Afghanistan, the Taliban have little appetite for reconciliation with your good government in Kabul. The US-Taliban peace agreement very much affects Afghans lives. The US – Taliban deal will murder in cold blood a peaceful proponent of human rights and humanitarian disaster. Taliban was attacks on the Afghan people during the talks with the US. The minute the US and NATO withdrawn its troops, the Taliban will again sweep over the Afghanistan and global terrorism will find a new home in Afghanistan. The Haqqani network which have long standing ties with Al-Qaeda (it founded in a Haqqani training camp) will establish in Afghanistan. Afghanistan will return to the status quo ante. There will most likely be continued civil war. This will cost millions of Afghans lives. However, BBC reported again Hon. Trump cancels peace deal with Taliban. I observed that your government quickly welcomed Hon. Trump announcement. God is with Afghans and your government.  IMHO, Hon. Trump administration has to give extra training to the Afghan army to take on terrorists in Afghanistan. I firmly believe that modest the US military support in Afghanistan is necessary for long term strategic success against the Taliban. Afghans will not survive without modest the US military support.        

    

Hon. President, Afghanistan has become a distraction in the war on Taliban terror. The Taliban will never be eradicated as long as Russia, Pakistan (IMHO, Taliban hates Pakistan for allowing NATO to use it as a supply route for NATO’s occupation of Afghanistan that is why TTP was created in 2006), Iran and other Gulf states continue to support the Taliban with arms, materials and fighters the Taliban will be threat to the stability of Afghanistan. The Taliban is a proxy force. Thus, there will never be peace in Afghanistan until Taliban supporters abandon. IMHO, war is obsolete and doesn’t solve any problems but it makes more problems. Thus, I firmly believe that third solution is more optimistic about the possibility of peace and stability for Afghanistan. Third solution is the only rational way forward. The Taliban cannot ally to any western nation state. They can allies with their religious fundamentalists such as Iraq, the UAE, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Jordan etc. But your government can ally with western nation to end war with Taliban if you had a structured government. Unfortunately, I don’t see structured government in Afghanistan. If you want your country to be a liberal democracy in the future, you have to take decisive decision immediately. At present, Afghanistan is lead by your good government. You must have interest in policy and governance and have the mental capacity to end war. Afghanistan in 2019 is worse off than it was in 2001. 

   

God help Afghanistan and God help Afghan Women!    

       

Thank you very much for your kind attention Hon. President. 

Respectfully yours,

Athinarayanan Sanjeevraja

Tamil Nadu