BRITAIN’S BREXIT BATTLE 2019

To:     The Right Honourable European Commission President Hon. Jean-Claude Juncker 

From: Athinarayanan Sanjeevraja

Date: August 19, 2019

RE:     BRITAIN’S BREXIT BATTLE  

Suggestion:

Hon. European Commission President, let me start by paying my respects to you and through you to. The UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has insisted repeatedly that backstop must go, if not then no deal BREXIT but he support the GFA and custom-free border between the UK (Northern Ireland) and the EU (Republic of Ireland). That is a blatant contradiction. How can he have it both ways? If the UK wanted to exit from the EU bloc without a deal - the return of a hard border is absolutely necessary. Why BREXITERS are object to the backstop? The reason behind that it would give the EU way to keep a toehold in future UK trade policy. If the UK wanted to leave the EU without backstop, in other words, a hard BREXIT or there is been no exit agreement by both the UK and the EU – then the return of a hard border is absolutely necessary between the Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. The UK will learn it sooner than later, the return of a hard border not only affects trade in a very negative way but also be an excuse for the resumption of paramilitary violence in the Northern Ireland. Keeping an open border is absolutely essential because it took so many decades to bring peace across Ireland after Republic of Ireland to finally institute International Peace Agreement (GFA) along that border. I really have zero easy explanations or reasons but an open border is the only thing that maintains peace across Ireland. The UK is killing off 20 years of Northern Ireland workers’ rights, civil rights, respect and support because of BREXIT scam. There are more than 25000 people are travel across the border everyday for work. Huge amounts of goods and services cross the border everyday without checks because GFA removed security checkpoints from the Irish border.

Hon. President, Northern Ireland and Ireland are covered by the International Peace Agreement (GFA). The International Peace Agreement (GFA) includes promise from the EU, the UK and Ireland to maintain the status quo across Ireland. GFA have overwhelming support in Ireland and Northern Ireland. Thus, the victory of the International Peace Agreement (GFA) ended the civil war and restoring normalcy across Ireland. But Britain BREXIT at an extreme ends because it does not meet an International Peace Agreement (GFA) which the US and the EU were involved in forging. It does not recognise how to balance national and international politics. In the UK, BREXITERS mentality looks like an eccentric indulgence. They are disturbing normal life on an Ireland and Northern Ireland where majority finds relative peace. The hardcore BREXITERS like Boris Johnson does not care about keeping the peace in Ireland. The International Peace Agreement (GFA) leaves open the possibility of a United Ireland if majorities in both Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland support it by referendum. Northern Ireland voted 55.8% to remain in the EU in 2016 the UK – the EU referendum. Let they choose whether to remain in the UK or to unify with Ireland as EU member. Northern Ireland economic interest resides in the EU single market and the customs union than the BREXITING UK. No deal BREXIT would cause Northern Ireland to change their opposition to unification with Republic of Ireland because Northern Ireland people are already a majority of working in Ireland. In my opinion, Northern Ireland reuniting with the Republic of Ireland would be a major positive outcome.  If I am not mistaken, the current polling against Ireland Unification has vey narrowed to 45 percent to 42.5 percent. Republic of Ireland is more politically progressive than Northern Ireland. This would fuel Ireland economic growth and is enhancing Ireland’s place in the EU and world affairs. Ireland Unification is coming sooner than later. It is time for Northern Ireland to reunite within the EU.

Hon. President, no deal BREXIT would cause Scotland Independence sooner than later. Scotland voted to overwhelming to remain in the EU in 2016 the UK – the EU referendum. Latest poll says that majority in Scotland want second independence referendum. In 2014 a referendum on Scottish Independence was held, I wrote to Scotland Minister says that “Lets we stay together as a family of nation”. Here it is http://athinarayananadvisoryauthority.blogspot.com/2014/09/lets-we-stay-together-as-family-of.html The Scottish Government responded to my mail on September 29, 2014. https://drive.google.com/open?id=1IkIcRgeF5O62KWJYcK9KErmwfzPL_q_y. 62 percent of the Scottish population opted for remain in the EU. The Scottish problem is that they have no clear path to join a member of the EU if they left the UK because the EU has ruled that a newly independent part of a former member state would not have an automatic membership of the EU. Yes, there is lot of legal thinking Scotland needs to do but Scotland should be allowed to rejoin the EU if it wishes. If Scotland wanted to join a member of the EU, they would have to apply for the EU membership as a new sovereign state and any one of the EU member states could veto its joining the EU. I am sure that the EU would welcome Scotland to join the EU. Scottish strategic thinking will tip towards the EU membership sooner than later. If the UK leaves the EU without a deal, things become much harder for Scotland. Economically, Scotland is better off being part of the EU than the UK. Truth though, it is going to happen that if Scotland were leave to the UK and joining in the EU and Northern Ireland were to reunite with Republic of Ireland and remain in the EU. Both Northern Ireland and Scotland would be sitting on an economic gold mine. No deal BREXIT would constitute a material change in the UK. Let the UK government prepared to see the division of its territory. Mr. Boris Johnson and BREXITERS will learn it all partitions in the world as the result of bad politics such as partition of Ireland, partition of Cyprus, partition of Germany, the partition of Korea and even the partition of Palestine.

Hon. President, no deal BREXIT will first and foremost be impossible to maintain the GFA and keep the peace in Ireland. I have said so earlier, no deal BREXIT consequences could be restarting a civil war in Northern Ireland. Thus, Republic of Ireland and the EU will stand with Northern Ireland and promised to maintain support for all its peace in Northern Ireland. If the UK undermined International Peace Agreement (GFA), the EU and the rest of the world including the US have to weigh on their influence on securing relative peace and economic prosperity on Northern Ireland. I am confident that both the US and the EU will succeed with a set of conditions to the UK to preserve an International Peace Agreement (GFA). I am greatly appreciate the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives Ms. Nancy Pelosi who told the Irish Parliament on April 17, 2019 that “US Congress stands with Ireland on BREXIT and no hugely trade deal between the US and the UK if there is a threat to the International Peace Agreement (GFA)”. Recently she told that no chance of US trade with the UK if Irish accord hit according to BBC. Mr. John Bolton is supporting on “No deal BREXIT” and the UK first in line for US trade deal according to BBC. The US shows strange mixtures of delusion and half-truth under Hon. Trump administration. However, the US congress has more power than the US President and the US Supreme Court.

Hon. President, if the UK would still be in violation of the GFA and the UK would not be able to trade under WTO rules as breaking GFA they signed and are obligate to keep. Breaking GFA would make potential trade partners or advanced economic countries extremely hesitant to trade with the UK. The world would be viewed as the UK is an untrustworthy partner. In my observation about the UK since 2009, the UK always had an uneasy relationship with the EU sometimes justified and sometimes not. I am hearing the BREXITERS calling for the WTO option since 2016. It is quite shocking that the UK has such little grasp of how world trade networks operate today? How little island has to offer in a trade deal with the world in compare to the EU which trade as one block? There is a fundamental rule of trade negotiations that market size determines trade leverage. The UK is very small when it comes to trade politics. The EU is a power house when it comes to trade politics. Even the WTO rules sometimes crash out by the EU. No deal BREXIT to bring the UK complete trade melt down. There will be no magical trade deal. I still remember that when I wrote to Hon. David Cameron on BREXIT in 2016, I have said so, if the UK left the EU single market and customs union will introduce thousands of problems practically. For instance, the UK will be trading as a third country under WTO rules. The UK has no single FTA with any market on the earth till today. In that case, the UK will be able to set its own import tariffs. It is not an easy task because it will be subject to every WTO member’s individual schedule of concessions on goods on all the UK exports. The UK will have to trade according to every country’s approved schedule of concessions on goods under WTO rules. The concessions will be somewhere between 5 to 70 percent approximately. In the meantime the UK exports will plummet to the ground. Any trade deal takes time but the UK does not have time. If the UK to quit the EU without trade agreements the UK economy slips into recession sooner than later. The UK fell in almost every economical aspect behind the members of the European community before joining the EEC. The UK begged twice for the EEC membership. The history will repeat itself the UK economy slip into recession. The UK must lose huge market share for sure because WTO rules cannot replace the EU single market because many branches are not covered in WTO rules such as aviation, finances etc. The Financial service and aviation are the British bread & butter business. The most importantly, every minutes of delay at the ports will cost huge Pounds a year that will wreck the UK economy for sure. Switzerland took 10 years to reach an FTA with the EU to achieve its status of the EU market access. Norway is part of the EU single market and follows nearly every EU rules. If I am not mistaken, Norway fees are higher relative to the UK fee. The UK has no strategy, no viable or credible plan for BREXIT that could be fairly characterised by the EU. In addition, WTO knows the MFN rule which says you are not allowed to discriminate between trade partner nation without free trade agreement or special agreements or call it a deal. Thus, no tariffs for the UK goods are entering the EU. This would encourage other nation to request the same free of tariffs access to the EU single market. How will the EU justified this? How will the UK’s decision to make the UK border on the Island of Ireland which is an external EU border. The EU border is a border between two customs areas and a border between two regulatory areas which has consequences. The UK would not be able to trade under WTO rules unless they would be giving the EU favourable trade terms. In addition, the UK will be trading away from all the EU FTA’s and PTA’s as stated by Article 50.

Hon. President, I doubt that an unelected UK Prime Minister will ever have enough power to take the UK out of the EU bloc without a general election. I also doubt that whether the UK Parliament allows BREXIT disaster to descent on the UK? In my opinion, No deal BREXIT won’t happen as long as the UK Prime Minister has no majority in the UK Parliament. He just wants to scare the EU and once again the Irish in their colony and keeps banging on no deal BREXIT. But he has not yet said how he solves the BREXIT issue? BREXIT is a typical Boris Johnson game, childish politics and exercise in mindless. BREXIT has nothing to do with the well being of the British or with governance. Mr. Boris Johnson has a deal on the table. It accounts for treaties that the UK signed. That is GFA. If the UK breaks the GFA or treaties it brings into question of the UK honesty as a negotiating partner. Peace and security of the world is focused on the UK and it is populated by fools. British people will learn it soon, how the career options of Mr. Boris Johnson could lead to the UK economic and political disaster?

Hon. President, the EU Chief priority is to keep the 27 member states in line. We don’t want any member state leave the bloc in the future. We don’t want any member state trying to renegotiate special terms of the union like the UK outside of the normal process. We should not back down and renegotiate the terms of BREXIT. We should stand firm on what has been negotiated with Hon. Theresa May government. Backstop must stays because it is the practical translation of the GFA, need to maintain the integrity of the EU single market and need to follow the WTO rules particularly in regard to existing trade deals. We need to maintain the same border controls for all third party nations and the UK is a third party nation if the UK left the EU bloc without a deal. We need to impose a hard border in Northern Ireland to control commercial flows from the UK. If we do not control commercial flows into the EU from the UK, we are not allowed to control them for imports from many other nations. Backstop is the best arrangement to the UK’s redlines, it respects the GFA and allows free market access to the EU single market. The UK has no escape from the backstop unless it accepts permanent isolation from the EU. No deal BREXIT the UK will lose the concept of the WTO rules and the EU trade rules.

Hon. President, the UK wants all the benefits and none of the obligations. IMHO, that is simply not realistic. The UK must be most vulnerable to economic fallout if the price of goods made in the EU jump 25 percent after no deal BREXIT. Most of the British companies will find their products are no longer affordable and they must move their business to the EU due to unaffordable tariffs. The UK will learn it real trade agreements with the rest of the world that might require many more years to negotiate. The UK should either stay or leave in October 31, 2019 with withdrawal agreement or no deal BREXIT. I would say that BREXIT must be implemented on October 31, 2019 no matters if the UK left the EU bloc without a deal. We cannot accommodate the UK of endless flexibility and accommodation. The UK wanted to leave the EU and retain the best part of the EU project that is trade. The UK always makes demands that are frankly outrageous. Enough is enough. The UK is always been very difficult to manage and many EU projects have been rebuked by the UK opposition. The UK is constantly undermining of the EU regulation whether it is social or economic or cultural. This would alleviate the dire consequences of the free market in peoples’ lives in the EU. We, the EU, endure quite some pain to avoid making concessions, constant exceptions to the rules and special exemptions weren’t good enough for our EU project. For instance, look at the expansion into Eastern Europe which was heavily promoted by the UK and often over reservations of others that would make the EU less cohesive and look at the UK rebate which is a complex calculation. I am sure that the UK equates to a reduction of more than 60 percent of the UK’s net contribution to the EU since 1980. The UK wanted to leave the EU bloc. Let them leave the EU bloc completely. Let them sell marmalade under WTO rules. No deal is a good deal for our future as well as our EU project. After no deal BREXIT, the EU will shift their ideological balance of power and the construction on much needed social project can resume. As a result, we may recover our stability, our sense of purpose of the EU project and some measure of social peace. No wonder, we, the EU will resolutely take measure to make it happen. I am with the EU throughout my life tenure. We will well thrive without the UK. The UK must realise after no deal BREXIT, they are getting something they should never have wanted for sure. They must pay big price to pacify eurosceptics. If the UK left the EU with a sweetheart deal and the avalanche will be started. Mark my words. We should stand on the deadline. We will ready to implement the solutions to any problems that have actually been planning that the UK’s exit from the EU bloc. The EU is too big an economy. We should not wait for the UK to make up its mind. We are first and foremost responsible for promoting and protecting the trade economies of the 27 member states. However, we have to draw a thick boundary between what the member state get for being a member of the EU and what the state get for being on the outside of the EU. In future, we need to brace the Europeans for the economic impact of leaving the EU single market and the customs union to keep the 27 member states in line. We, the EU should learn that membership where one nation is special often fail. We don’t want any member state trying to renegotiate special terms of the EU in the future.     

                                

Vielen Danke für Ihre Aufmerksamkeit.

Gott schütze dich mit gutter gesundheit!

Aufrichtige Grüße,

Athinarayanan Sanjeevraja

Tamil Nadu