KOREAN UNIFICATION IS COMING

KOREAN UNIFICATION IS COMING

ATHINARAYANAN SANJEEVRAJA

January 30, 2018

TO,

The Right Honourable South Korean President Mr. Moon Jae-in and North Korean President Mr. Kim Jong-un,

It is a great pleasure writing to you on how to make Korean Unification success. Korean unification is one of the indispensable issues on the global agenda. It is true that South ideas, policies and systems are downright different from North and have been moving down different directions over the last 70 years. For instance, South Korea politics takes place in the framework of presidential federal republic but North Korea has hereditary power systems, one party dictatorship state. South Korea has adopted an open market economy but North Korea has adopted limited market or closed economy. South Korea maintains strong capitalism and an ally of USA while North Korea is a collapse of capitalism and an ally of China and the disparity continues in all most all fields but nothing common for certain. If the inequality continued between two Koreas, this would make an impossible for Korean Unification. I firmly believe that open market economy can lead industrialisation and democratisation successfully but closed or limited market economy cannot lead industrialisation and democratisation successfully. IMHO to North Korean President Hon.Kim Jong-un, North Korea desperately needs radical reforms that would embrace liberalisation of North Korea’s economic policies, industrial policies, and social policies. It is just a matter of time for Korean Unification, if North Korea embraced liberalisation of economic policies, industrial policies and social policies. This would improve inter-korean relations. Once the relationship between two Koreas is improved, Korean Unification issues will be resolved through active dialogue, exchanges and cooperation on the basis of the reality of difference between two Koreas. If North Korea continued its hereditary power systems, its economy shrinks, its foreign trade diminish and its per capita income wide incessantly. Korean Unification policies should be based on value of its peace, its freedom, its prosperity, its democracy and its responsible to international society. This would win the hearts of Koreans on both sides and would lay the ground work for Korean Unification. If Korean Unification policies based on contradictions, it delays Korean Unification project success.

The Honourable Presidents of South Korea and North Korea,

I have done some factual analysis of Korean Unification plan that help North Korea to settle for Korean Unification. I would like to highlights very few of them which I know exclusively here. Firstly, South Korea government must augment public awareness of the advantages of Korean Unification in better informed school children’s, college students, uneducated Koreans and whoever has negative views on Korean Unification through education, training and information. Secondly, integration of North Korean refugees, separated families and relatives into South Korean society with humanitarian aid and social assistance and medical provisions that would build trust between two Koreas. This could be done through openness of telephone network between two Koreas, that is people to people contact over the phone and postal communication between two Koreas, for instance, send gifts by post this would reduce misunderstandings of two Koreas and win the hearts of Korean people on both sides. Thirdly, allowing people from North Korea to South Korea through special train or bus services realise North Koreans living conditions compare to South Korean high living standards. This would decide North Koreans to shift to South Korea for better living standards and help South Koreas impending labour shortages, bring down its wages and production costs, increasing its purchasing power and its global competitiveness. Fourthly, the North Korean labour market is not a competitive one that is non-transparent, shattered and dysfunctional at matching talent compare to South Koreans labour market because North Koreans lacks desirable working skills and technical skills to compare with South Koreans. IMHO, South Korean labour market regulation is needed to resolve North Korean’s fragile labour markets to improve the living standards of North Koreans. Fifthly, North Korea’s infrastructure and industrial facilities are not at the state-of-the-art with latest technologies. It has to be modernised with latest technology to meet its global supply chain challenges after Korean Unification as North Korea has high potential risk of global supply chain disruptions. Reconstruction of North Korea decrepit industrial base with state-of-the-art equipment must bring economic advantages, lower production costs, improve workforce skills and increase the productivity of North Korea. It is true that renovations of North Korea’s industrial base will yield substantial benefits as well as costs of South Korea but it is necessary for Korean Unification. Renovations of North Korea’s industrial base would spur economic development, boom domestic demand and expand its domestic market that could offer enormous benefits to South Korea and East Asia regions. Sixthly, when North Korea industrialise, the South Korea will have to deal with environmental consequences like quality of the water, quality of air, land and legal restrictions over environmental issues. South Korean environmental law is needed to protect the environmental contamination of water, air, soil and forest denudation in North Korea. Last but not least, North Korea nuclear issue is one of the most difficult and complex issues, once it is resolved other complex issues of Korean unification will reveal gradually. South Korean government must take swift steps towards North Korea disarmament and arms control to overcome the division of Korea. North Korean President Hon. Kim Jong-un must understand that disarmament and arms control are necessary to keep pace with political developments and international relations and it can be accelerated if necessary. IMHO to North Korean President Hon. Kim Jong-un, the nuclear potential of North Korea should be reduced to the required minimum level. I have completely understood North Korean policy makers are attempting to upgrade weapons of mass destruction after the Agreed Framework failed. This type of policy would continue the Korean Unification problem. If North Korea continued to increase lethality of its modern weapon, Korean Unification problem will continue, its economy never grow, it keeps North Korea distant from international relations. So North Korea’s disarmament plays a very important role for Korean Unification. I can say with confidence, North Korea’s disarmament could still make North Korea powerful nuclear power in the world. South Korea defence policy must posture towards North Korea after Korean Unification. North Korea will not accept US forces to remain in Korean Peninsula. IMHO to South Korean President Hon. Moon Jae-in, if US-South Korea relations continue after Korean Unification this would be very critical to the success of Korean Unification. South Korean government must aware of where to put pre-conditions and where to put objective requirements while negotiating with North Korea to make Korean Unification success. IMHO to Hon. Moon Jae-in and Hon. Kim Jong-un both are acts as a responsible leaders to promote active dialogues, exchanges and co-operations not only above said areas but all areas such as economy, transportation, science and technology, law, education, healthcare, environmental protection, social assistance, humanitarian assistance, cultures and many more that directly benefit people on both sides. Both leaders must eradicate economic and social differences of people on both sides and offer same civil and political rights for all Koreans. This would win the hearts of people on both sides. Moreover, both leaders started to work towards peace and stability in Korean Peninsula, security and prosperity for all Koreans. United Korea success depends on how it respect for the principles and norms of international law. If United Korea respect for the principles and norms of international law, it would become a responsible member of global society.  

         

The Honourable Presidents of South Korea and North Korea,

Tensions continue to spiral in the Korean Peninsula and East Asia regions as long as North Korea continues its nuclear programme. Both Presidents need to improve peace and security on the Korean Peninsula and East Asia regions. The Agreed Framework between the US and North Korea on October 21, 1994 that is froze North Korea nuclear programme. It’s soft copy available in Google search. I have no intentions to describing the Agreed Framework Agreement over again. But I would like to highlight some important issues in the Framework Agreement for your reference. IMHO to Hon. Moon Jae-in, North Korea did not infringe any features of the Agreed Framework Agreement. In fact, North Korea proclaimed to withdraw from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) and not to develop nuclear weapons but US breached the Agreed Framework agreement. For instance, US-led consortium supposed to build two light water nuclear reactor in North Korea to compensate for the loss of nuclear power but US never built nuclear reactor. In addition, US supposed to supply 500,000 tons of heavy fuel per year to North Korea until it would build two light water nuclear reactors in North Korea. But US failed to meet the supply of 500,000 tons heavy fuel a year and it was often delayed. US have shown it to be willing to breach any treaty it signs. How can we expect other nations to uphold any treaty it signs? However, the Agreed Framework would not put an end to the North Korea’s nuclear weapons, its missile activities and its structural problems posed by North Korea’s relations with its neighbours but it allowed North Korea’s to start of a new talk process with South Korea to end the spiral tensions in the Korean Peninsula and East Asia regions. IMHO to South Korean President Hon. Moon Jae-in to work with North Korean President Hon.Kim Jong-un to strengthen diplomatic efforts and combine an effective sanctions regime and North Korea nuclear and missile programmes that should be reduced to the minimum level which would bring secure, prosperous and denuclearised Korean Peninsula and the East Asia regions. Let me put it very clearly President, any sanction against North Korea does not work because UN does not provides the capability to monitor what can go in and out of the North Korea.

The Honourable Presidents of South Korea and North Korea,

North Korea’s nuclear programme shifted to South Korea, Japan, China, Russia and the US after the Agreed Framework failed. Today, US, Japan, China, and Russia be a central player in Korean Peninsula and East Asia region security issues. This initiated new tension for Korean Unification. But Korean Unification is the only solution to create a peace in Korean Peninsula and East Asia regions. Some of the Researchers, Political Analysts and Political Commentators recommend gradual integration between South Korea and North Korea. Others recommend rapid integration between South Korea and North Korea. IMHO, political integration should be carried out very immediately, economic integration should be carried out moderately and social assistance should be carried out rapidly to success Korean Unification. South Korea’s political integration should be friendlier and conciliation towards North Korean counterparts for Korean Unification. The price of Korean unification will likely to increase if Korean Unification delayed. Slower integration makes North Korea economically inferior and defencely more risky and times goes on that would involve major monetary burdens. If moderate economic integration takes place, transport of goods in Eurasia and East Asia regions could become much faster than other routes. This would be a major driver of growth in Eurasia and East Asia region. Rapid integration in social assistance is to win the hearts of Koreans.  

The Honourable Presidents of South Korea and North Korea,

North Korea is the world second largest inventory of manufacturing nuclear weapons, chemical weapons, biological weapons, long range missiles, ICBMs and nerve gas after the US. North Koreas weapons of mass destruction destroy entire cities or countries with the just press of button. This is already makes USA increasingly onerous. Moreover, US worried if two Koreas are starting to resume their friendlier relations, US has to withdrawal its enormous troops from Korean Peninsula or US has to end its security ties with South Korea. As a matter of fact, South Korea needs not to spend billions of dollars on American armaments. South Korea maintains a rock-solid relationship with US so that US back off and let Korean solve its own problem and allow North Korea commercial relationship with South Korea that contributes their national security. If US back off, US deserves a big credit for Korean Unification. In my view the main concerns of the US are, first, US should not inkling about reconciliation with North Korea and normalise its relations with North Korea is vital, second, US has to revive its security strategy for Korean Peninsula including returning of the command of ROK forces to South Korea after Korean Unification, third, US and South Korea must revise the ROK-US Mutual Defence Agreement after Korean Unification, last but not least, US withdrawal its military out of Korea and signed a peace treaty with North Korea nuclear potential to be required minimum level. The US should support Korean Unification that could become United Korea as a responsible member of international community.

The Honourable Presidents of South Korea and North Korea,

South Korea also maintains a rock-solid relationship with Japan, China and Russia because China and Russia interests must match with the interests of South Korea, US and Japan so that they can support Korean unification. US relationship with South Korea and Japan are very different from its relationship with China and Russia as US has security ties with South Korea and Japan which restricts freedom of maneuver. IMHO, China and Russia never accepts the US decorative pattern for Korean Unification. Thus, US or Japan or China or Russia or any other countries should not intervene Korean Unification process or South Korea and North Korea domestic affairs. But I am pretty certain, China and Russia put interest to help Korean Unification because Korean Unification will yield commercial and security benefits to China and Russia, if Middle Eastern countries oil exports to China disrupted by any reason that would affects directly China who is a major global oil importer from Middle Eastern countries. China already has close ties with both Koreas for its economic and political activities. Russia also has lot to gain profitably in terms of gas pipeline project from Korean Unification. Moreover, Korean Unification would make solid civil society which support Russia. The mission for stable civil institutions would encourage Russia development in China. Indeed, Korean Unification requires considerable compulsions of foreign capital. Japan could use its influence at the IMF or World Bank or any other institutional bank development to meet the financial challenges that United Korea would entail. Such type of cooperation improves its relations with United Korea that must bear fruit of jointly valuable economic cooperation and expand its trade with United Korea. IMHO, if Japan had friendly relations with North Korea, it would have more to gain from North Korea. North Korea has to gain armaments sales to Japan but US might lose armaments sales to Japan as well as US might lose its military dominance over East Asia regions. Thus, US have to revise its security strategy for East Asia regions. China and Japan business communities are leader in the major infrastructure development projects. If Korean Unification was successful, Japan or China can develop commercial links between North Korea, China, Russia and Japan and nearby areas of East Asia that markets would be most intriguing economic implications of Korean Peninsula and East Asia regions. To sum up, Korean Unification will generate both benefits as well as expenses but is not a burdensome to Japan or China or Russia or South Korea or North Korea for certain. But Korean Unification must devolve on the US for certain. Korean Unification is a good investment project if handled it properly, the rate of return for that project is high for certain but, if mishandled it that would lead to political turmoil as well as loss of very large amount of money for certain.

The Hon. Presidents of South Korea and North Korea,      

I must humbly prayed both Presidents should bring together your country by step-by step unification plan that would guarantee your place in history books, united Korea emerges as admired nation, wealthy and powerful in Asia.  

I am looking forward with great anticipation from both Koreans to stay together as a family of nation.

Thanking You,

Athinarayanan Sanjeevraja.

NOTE:

This is an opinion piece on Korean Unification model. This paper is not based on research specifically targeted at addressing the challenges and strategies of Korean Unification. Instead, it draws on some recent, related data and research along with my own views on how we might success Korean Unification.