EXTENSION OF ARTICLE 50

To:     The Right Honourable UK Prime Minister Mrs. Theresa May

From: Athinarayanan Sanjeevraja

Date: March 7, 2019

RE:     EXTENSION OF ARTICLE 50

Suggestion:

Hon. Prime Minister, let me start by paying my respects to you and through you to. I just heard that the UK can ask for the extension of Article 50 if the UK Parliaments failed to deliver BREXIT before March 29, 2019 to the EU. The option to withdraw the Article 50 notification expires on March 29, 2019 unless the EU and the UK agree to extend Article 50 period for further negotiations which means the UK maintaining the status quo. Article 50 is very specific that unless the UK rescinds its invocation of Article 50 on or before March 29, 2019, the UK should ever rejoin the EU. If the UK wanted to rejoin the EU, it must follow all the provisions of Article 49. An extension of Article 50 is technically possible if the EU 27 member states would need to agree unanimously on extension of Article 50 as Article 50 clearly states that Article 50 extension requires unanimous EU 27 support. But Article 50 can be extended if the UK Parliament and Cabinet get to a consensus that the UK is asking for an extension to facts, reason and logic. That means the UK holds a second referendum or call for general election or binding the declaration from the UK government or ratified by the UK Parliament or any facts and logic. An extension of Article 50 process involves many steps. For instance, it requires the UK Parliamentary vote for the Article 50 extension and then your cabinet members must sign off on the letter, then you could formally approach the EU 27 member’s states and ask for an extension. Let me put it very clearly to you the Article 50 extension would only be granted if your government was laid out clear path forward and would be would be for couple of years because good deal is the very thought of multiyear negotiation like Switzerland had negotiated a deal with the EU for a long time, Island is negotiating with the EU after its banking failure and Norway access to the EU single market with almost every EU rule and a fee with the EU for long time. Short period of extension of Article 50 changes nothing unless the UK government had agreed the BREXIT you wanted and needed to legislate. The EU will be granted the Article 50 extension as no deal becomes the clear course.  

Hon. Prime Minister, I have been banging on about revoking the Article 50 since 2017 that the Article 50 can be unilaterally revoked by your government without any repercussions but it would have to complete by March 29, 2019. You have to take it into the House of Commons first reading, and then it could be guillotined into legality in couple of days. The Article 50 revocation requires you can revoke the Article 50 notification under Article 50 (2) of EU Treaty but it has to meet two conditions. First, for non-revocation that the EU withdrawal agreement should be approved by the UK Parliament and second for non-revocation that the UK voters have voted in favour of the Article 50 revocation in which the UK remaining as a member of the EU for economic, political and social purposes. When you revoke the Article 50, it must represent good faith by the UK wants to remain in the EU. The UK should not use time to press for concessions that have already rejected by the EU 27 member’s states or the UK should not represent bad faith which is judged by the ECJ see the UK immediately suspended from the EU. The UK should be very careful while withdrawing the Article 50.

Hon. Prime Minister, the regulatory burdens of getting out of the EU are too complex and too expensive. That is the way the EU founders designed the EU which make it very difficult for the any EU members states to leave the bloc. Otherwise, any member’s states can to splinter-off one by one. The time is very short. That’s why I kept on insisting you to call for the UK-the EU second referendum in 2016 but you are completely unenthusiastic about second referendum. I don’t understand why you thought the UK-EU second referendum would be wrong. But I firmly believe that second referendum would heal divisions. That is the essence of democratic country. Good political leader never allow their country divided hopelessly. I also insisted that BREXIT is a complex issue but no one considered the complexity of BREXIT. None of the BREXIT promoters have ever been held accountable for BREXIT really. They all continue to use their messages for personal profit. The UK has permeated the once proud of its institutions and its representatives. Now it would turn in its grave because of BREXIT. The UK has practically no leverage on BREXIT. You have to decide what you want then you have to do honest checks against reality.  

             

Hon. Prime Minister, if I am not mistaken, the European Parliament is in plenary session in the coming week of March 11 to March 15, 2019. The coming week is promises to be a very interesting week because this is the last opportunity for the UK to give its consent if it wanted to extend Article 50 so that the EU Council of Ministers is to conclude and the Chancellor of the UK Mr. Philip Hammond is scheduled to give his second Spring statement on March 13, 2019. Is the UK ratifying the Withdrawal agreement in accordance with Article 50? I think the EU is not discussing the extension of Article 50. But it is better to be prepared if the UK government asks for the extension of Article 50? From my perspective, the EU may say yes to request for an extension but the EU may insist on a long period that would be the best option as a good deal is the very thought of a multi-year negotiation with the EU. In addition, it would the UK to elect MEPs of the next European Parliament election 2019. If the UK wanted to extend the Article 50, the UK government and wider Parliament will accept the EU terms. The UK votes have very little influence on the EU’s position. The UK has to commit the course of action that will result in the UK Parliament voting to accept the extension of Article 50. Even if the EU 27 member state’s all agreed, it would be very heavy lift politically.   

Hon. Prime Minister, I fervently hope that you will withdraw the Article 50 and the EU Withdrawal Act 2018 has passed into the UK law on or before March 29, 2019 if the UK Parliament failed to deliver BREXIT on March 29, 2019.

Thank you very much for your attention Hon. Prime Minister.

Respectfully yours

Athinarayanan Sanjeevraja.