VENEZUELA HUMANITARIAN CRISIS 2019 – AN IMPECCABLE ANALYSIS

To:     The Right Honourable Venezuela President Hon. Nicolás Maduro

From: Athinarayanan Sanjeevraja

Date: May 3, 2019

RE:     VENEZUELA HUMANITARIAN CRISIS 2019 – AN IMPECCABLE ANALYSIS  

Suggestion:

Hon. President, let me start by paying my respects to you and through you to. Well, I’ve been watching the Venezuela since 2013. You were democratically twice elected President of Venezuela 2013 & 2018 under one of the fairest election according to the Carter Institute. I am writing to you because there is a humanitarian crisis in Venezuela which needs to be addressed. Large population in Venezuela live in abject poverty. The Venezuela humanitarian crisis is now undergoing tragic which make this absolutely urgent to address. Food and medical aid should be made available to Venezuelans. I’m happy that Venezuelan people are getting adequate food subsidies by your government but they should receive adequate medical aid by your government. The Former President of Venezuela Hon. Hugo Chávez era economy successes was dependent on a steady flow of oil revenues counts for roughly 90 percent of Venezuela export earnings. Oil prices were in triple digit. There was a plenty of cash flow in the national treasury to fund many things beneficial to the Venezuelan.  Venezuela was a wealthy country. He left behind a socialist nation with a strong economy which built primarily on oil production. Today, venezuelans have been unable to afford even the most basic necessities despite Venezuela is the world’s largest oil reserves compare to Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Russia, etc. Venezuela’s GDP meltdown since 2013 because of the global oil prices tumbled, oil production is at its lowest level, inflation skyrocketed, Bolivar currency became worthless, sharp slide in Venezuela’s imports and exports and foreign funds all evaporated. Why the situation in Venezuela is so bad? What was the root of Venezuela’s crisis? Venezuela current crisis leaves a lot of factors, for instance, Venezuela over reliance on oil or US economic sanctions against Venezuela or Chavaz/your government socialism to share the oil profits with large population or corruption and incompetence which destroyed much of the oil production and the US oligarch alliance contracts extracted billions of dollars from the Venezuela oil industry (looting oil) or there was not enough oil in Venezuela to feed whole nation or your governmental system is not working or rampant nationalisation or foreign intervention brought Venezuela to ruin or ban on the purchase of government and PDVSA bonds or the political impasse between you and Mr. Juan Gerardo Guaidó Márquez or all factors.

Hon. President, Businessline reported that your good governance wanting to price its oil in a currency other than the US dollar. Reuters reported that you published oil prices in Chinese currency. It was classic mistakes of your good government Hon. President because of that the US sanctions against Venezuela and the US goes little deeper intervention in Venezuela. I really have no idea how many years has the US had sanctions on Venezuela? Every oil oligarch in the world has largely benefitted from oil sanctions on Venezuela as prices of oil and demand rise up. I really have no idea how long we have been sanctioning Venezuela to drive up the oil price? It is crystal clear that Venezuela crisis is all about oil. Venezuela’s current crisis has reduced living standards of Venezuelans, undermined Venezuela economic activity, increased poverty in Venezuela, forced immigration to other countries, increased criminality in Venezuela. Venezuela has twice much oil as Saudi Arabia but it did not adequately diversify its economy. If Venezuela wanted to achieve social success in eradicating extreme poverty and building social housing, Venezuela has to diversify its economy, it will take minimum two decades. In my perspectives, I’ve never seen a country which has large resources that successfully diversified its economy in the space of less than two decades. There have been an innovative means for Venezuela to develop its vital infrastructure which diversification is possible. Diversification is impossible without vital infrastructure.

Hon. President, what are the possibilities to resolve humanitarian crisis in Venezuela? First, if Venezuela wanted to manage being a single commodity economy, Venezuela should be run-like Saudi Arabia with lot of beheadings and an iron-fist. Second, your good government should enter into new security and trade agreements with Russia, China, Cuba and other neighbouring countries. If Venezuela opened the floodgates of trade with your allies, partners and friends especially those in the region that would bring more change to Venezuela in two decades. It would have resolved the instability and economic disaster in Venezuela peacefully. Third, your best set of options begin with working assiduously with European energy companies who should be able to put Venezuela oil industry on solid footing and your good governance should establish reasonable political climate. That means no European energy companies wishes to spend time and capital on developing or fixing Venezuela’s industrial problem. It would be highly improbable if the threat of nationalisation hanging over Venezuelan heads. Finally, your good governance should feature emphatically the US. The Venezuela economy was disaster long before the beginning of the US economic sanctions in August 2017. The Venezuela economy had contracted over 30 percent before the US sanctions. BBC political commentator said long before that US sanctions against Venezuela is generally worthless as Venezuela economy had been steadily deteriorated before the US sanctions. I fully agreed but IMHO, US sanctions stand to deprive Venezuela oil income and foreign exchange as Saudi Arabia flood the market with oil to lower the cost of Venezuela after the US put sanctions against Venezuela that caused Venezuela economy to crash. I give one more example Iran, what happened to Iranian oil export after the US withdraw from the nuclear deal and imposed sanctions in 2018. The US sanctions against Venezuela are cynical economic warfare. The US sanction against Venezuela need to be lifted up with the help of Russia, China, Cuba and the EU asap. Russia, China and Cuba have already given you diplomatic support. EU diplomacy will help you to lift the US sanctions. Hon. President, the history has taught us there is no simple formula for nation building because societal acceptance is very different all over the world. So far we had lost immense source of resources and values and oil looting have led Venezuela refineries to cease operations. Supposedly, immense wealth should be given to the Venezuelan so that they can prosper. I have observed from the distance, how Poland transformed from the socialist system to capitalism? It was a miracle. Poland was lucky not having the oil. Now we have to think how to deal with Venezuela crisis? We can’t change history but we can learn from it. If your government and Venezuelan people working together, you can transform Venezuela a wealthy country in two decades. I have observed some of the leaders who never serve their people but they purport to have sovereignty over. I most humbly prayed you to transition back to democracy, respect for law, fundamental human rights and keep Venezuela people expectation high. International Red Cross Society and the UN cannot substitute for fundamental lack of respect for the law and human rights particularly Venezuela already intervened by Russia, China and Cuba. I hope that you better understand it what I mean it If any nation or International Supervision like Red Cross and the UN would like to address the humanitarian crisis through aid, they should do through your government apparatus or through appropriate channels. It should not be against the will of the government. If any aid arrived against the will of the government, it is not an aid but intervention. This is not the way to resolve humanitarian crisis in Venezuela. I’m pretty sure that the EU humanitarian relief is not threatening the will of the Venezuelan people.

Hon. President, “Transparency International’s 2017 Corruption Perception Index ranks Venezuela in 169^th place out of 180 countries. A 2014 Gallup poll found that 75% of Venezuelans believed that corruption was widespread throughout the Venezuelan government”. I learned from Transparency International and Gallup poll that Venezuela has been governed by corruption. Your government officials, military personal and PDVSA employees are stealing money from the oil sector. This is well documented. You are the President of the Venezuela but what is your government true objective are? Some of the Venezuelans people are stunningly wealthy and majority of the Venezuelans people are poor. Until corruption becomes less profitable, it will remain that way Hon. President.   

Hon. President, please accept your Excellency, your regime will bring back Venezuela economy on track as earliest as possible. The reality is that destruction of the Venezuelan economy to force the political transition soon. I hope you better understand it. I wish you all the very best for your future endeavour Hon. President.    

     

Thank you very much for your attention Hon. President

Respectfully yours

Athinarayanan Sanjeevraja.

Tamil Nadu