SUDAN CRISIS 2020

To: The Right Honourable Sudan Prime Minister Mr. Abdalla Hamdok

From: Athinarayanan Sanjeevraja 

Date: November 27, 2020 

RE: Sudan Crisis 2020

Suggestion: 

Hon. Prime Minister, your beloved nation is not stable, democratic or progressive. The situation in Sudan is precarious due to mismanagement for many years by corrupt officials but I still have hope in your good government to help the people of Sudan by change and transformation. Your good government need to understand the issues and formulate policies to move your nation forward and policies has to meet explicit requirements before the change and transformation can be made. I would like to suggest that water would be the key to Sudan peace as well as social sciences. Moreover, your good government should consider traditional knowledge that is the first method to prevent Sudan crisis. IMHO, the flood will be more in the coming years due to Ethiopians are seedling 20 billion trees and also the effect of Ethiopian’s Renaissance Dam on the floods occurrence in Sudan.

Hon. Prime Minister, According to the International Panel of Experts found the dam would not negatively affect Egypt or Sudan. International Water Law expects “downstream countries to consult with upstream countries about their water use but Egypt does not accept that principle.” I am not a Hydrologist or Geologist but I suspect there is an effect of Ethiopians’ Renaissance Dam on the dam operation and fills up, there will be no doubt a drier spell while the dam fills up. In addition, how is it going to reduce the flow of the Nile River particularly downstream? First, your government Water Administration should negotiate with the Ethiopia’s Water Administration on the Renaissance Dam operating rules dam fills up. IMHO, the Ethiopian Water Administration can only help avoid the arrival of White flood waters and Blue flood waters at the same time. The amount of water stored by the dam could be handled through negotiation and suitable time of filling. Any amount of stored water would need to be released as the dam is meant to generate hydro power. Second, stop building homes in flood prone areas. Finally, your good government put an effort to prevent future flood by either creating retention ponds to hold water or constructing Hydroelectric Dam or floodway’s to divert floodwater during heavy rainy season. The dam has the ability to stabilise the water flow during floods. This kind of flooding could be prevented. I have seen many nations building the hydroelectric dam (not irrigation dam) to provide protection from floods which would incur some costs. As a Chemist, I say with confidence that hydroelectric dam will have no detrimental effect but irrigation dam may have detrimental effect. Moreover, hydropower continues to be far cheaper for storage than any mega scale batteries and provides vital contribution to grid stability. Hydropower will continue to be a key part of Sudan development. The dam will build with the purpose of reducing poverty in Sudan, allowing more access to electricity to its citizen and helping its overall development of Sudan by creating more energy for its quickly expanding manufacturing base. That would bring immense wealth to Sudan. Nothing creates more stability in Sudan than a thriving economy and economies don’t thrive without stable, affordable and plentiful power. Hydropower does not generate any Co2. If your government build an Aluminium smelter near the dam as Aluminium smelter uses lot of power, thus, a lot of water will have to flow through the turbines to contain the floods. I would like to recommend implementing the recommendations of IPOE concerning the soil deposits and ecological change to prevent future flood.   

Hon. Prime Minister, I still wonder that how Nile River about 6650 km long one could not satisfy the Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan population’s needs. Nile River is bigger than what Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan population’s needs. If modern irrigation techniques and adoption of less water crops were adopted more widely by Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan, they would need less water. IMHO, Cooperative Framework Agreement is necessary that Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan to adopt because international standards and process are in place and have been observed. I know from the public statements that Ethiopia is proposing to fill the dam at the rate of 15 cubic kilometres per year, which is much less than the annual allocation of Egypt claims. If Egypt cooperates on joint management of the Aswan and Ethiopian’s Renaissance Dam, Egypt can reduce the level of high Aswan dam which could save perhaps 5 cubic kilometres per year and substantially reduce evaporation losses. That is why the Cooperative Framework Agreement is necessary between Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan. Unfortunately, Ethiopia does not want a binding agreement with Egypt and Sudan on Ethiopia’s Renaissance Dam. There are still technical disagreements over the amount of water to be released in drought periods. A non-binding agreement is not worth the paper it’s written on. IMHO, Cooperative Framework Agreement is must before Ethiopia’s Renaissance Dam is commissioned because co-riparian’s be consulted rigorous environmental and social impacts assessments are conducted and adverse impact on the downstream states such as Egypt and Sudan be accounted for. Ethiopia did none. Ethiopia will evaporate more water for agricultural and hydro power use. Ethiopia’s serious interests are Agriculture and hydro power. Hon. Prime Minister, you cannot expect cooperation between nations if one nation decides to do what it wants without consultation but then expects the other nations to ask for its agreement if they want to do something. I would like to recommend that either Cooperative Framework Agreement between Ethiopia, Egypt or Sudan or there is a single authority with the power and responsibility for allocating and controlling the water that would have been to satisfy downstream.       

Hon. Prime Minister, what Sudan need is good planning and a long view. “According to the US Geological Survey that Sudan produced an estimated 93 tonnes of gold in 2018 that would make it Africa’s third biggest producer after South Africa & Ghana.” Why don’t your government put that money to build hydroelectric dam? I would like to recommend building hydroelectric dam which are designed and operated with full knowledge that climate is variable to contain the floods. Why don’t your government put that money to build safe surf eco tourist destination as Sudan has an excellent coastline with multiple breaks that improve Sudan economy in the future. Your government need functioning infrastructures that could be prevent flood and water could be used more efficiently for agriculture and hydropower that improve Sudan economy.  Sudan problem is poverty and growing population. Sudan will continue to hold its hands out in poverty until Sudan joins the rest of the developing world and gets its act with developing world. There will be insufficient water for so many people in Sudan sooner or later. The solution is to implement strict population control. The birth rate drops immediately once people become reasonably prosperous. If your government help to create prosperity, you can curb the population growth. We have seen this many nations with few exceptions like Gulf Arabs, parts of India etc. In addition, your government need functioning democratic institutions for democracy to work. I hope to see from you that competent civilian government in the coming years.

Let constructive coordination and cooperation of all Africa continent

Let not to blaming each other,

Let the resource scarcity leading to cooperation rather than conflict,

Let the cooperation begins to pervade the thinking and governmental practices of all Africa continent,

Let cooperative practices become the norm for all Africa continents,

Let find the solution for all Africa continent through diplomacy

Let all Africa continents be united to share resources fairly and   

Let rebuild all Africa continent and help the people live a better life.

 

I most humbly prayed you as a responsible leader, there is much to be gained by your cooperation with all Africa continents as well as the world.

Thank you very much for your kind attention Hon. Prime Minister.

 

Respectfully yours,

Athinarayanan Sanjeevraja

Athinarayanan Advisory

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